What a day to have a birthday. With the world and its future darkening visibly around us, and crunch turning to munch, we’re all seemingly heading for lunch on a plate, not seated at the table.

However, amidst all that financial chaos there is some good news: Syntagma is three years old.

Three is a significant number in horse, dog and internet years. Horses get to run in the Derby, dogs are the equivalent of 21, and anything on the internet is a virtual centenarian.

When we started out 36 long months ago, this site was a pure technology and media play. It was also the cheerleader for the launch of new sites on a large sprinkling of topics. Now I write here only about politics, finance and technology, in that order of magnitude. You won’t need to ask why, discerning Reader.

Many of the old staff have moved on — those who remain have aged visibly, some even look like centenarians.

Enough of the past, it is another country as someone once said — The Shire, perhaps. If the future looks more like the Land of Mordor, I fancy we’ll glean something of value and interest from it, and certainly something to write about — whatever horrors it throws at us.

So what’s the prognosis for Syntagma’s fourth year of operations, bearing in mind it is a business as well as an online publication?

In the wider world, freight shipping is slowing at the same rate it did at the end of 1931. There are so many similarities popping up between now and the 1930s, it’s beginning to take on a distinct Tolkien shade of dark mist and distant pointy mountains.

Even Russia, with it’s massive half-trillion of cash reserves, is sliding into a downward spiral towards another bankruptcy and authoritarianism.

We ourselves on this sceptred Isle will not be spared a decade of pitiful growth, or none, as we purge the vast vaults of debt accumulated under the deceptively-stern gaze of Prudence in recent years.

As Ambrose Evans-Pritchard puts it in today’s Telegraph, “The world stole prosperity from the future for year after year, with the full collusion of governments, regulators, and central banks. Now the future has arrived.”

Well, we are still here. And we will prevail until we come out the other side like foot soldiers returning from the trenches. In internet age, I calculate we’ll be around 300.

Something to celebrate, surely?

P.S. As a contrast with today, here’s Syntagma’s first birthday piece. Read here.

John Evans

Yesterday, a senior Conservative was said to have exclaimed, “Good grief, this is Brown’s Falkland’s moment.”

He was referring to the Falkland Island’s war in the early 1980s, when Margaret Thatcher was way behind in the polls and presiding over a country ravaged by recession — some of the pain inflicted by her own monetarist policies. She went on to win the next election with ease.

Watching Gordon Brown yesterday I sensed a smug belief that “this is my moment. At last I’m fighting on my terms and my territory.” Since many of the problems we have now can be traced to his door, that attitude is hugely condescending to most of us.

While Margaret Thatcher was correcting years of Labour incompetence and waste, her creative destruction is defensible. By contrast, Brown simply squandered the best economic inheritance given to any incoming administration in more than living memory.

As a corrective to his wild decade-long spending spree, Brown has put at risk £500 billion ($900bn) of our money. Note how a country one-fifth the size of the U.S. needs the same quantity of money to bail it out.

Although the package is an ingenious assemblage of prods and winks, Brown is not doing what the Fed announced yesterday, buying up commercial paper (corporate bonds) to keep the business sector flush with funds. This crisis may have started with banks, but it’s hitting Main Street hard right now with the worst of it to come in the UK.

This is not Brown’s “Falkland’s moment,” it’s his bed of shame.

P.S. How about this for an idea to break the fear of bankers to lend to other banks? It comes from Bob Cringely over at PBS in America and uses the methods of Jack Welch, former Tzar of General Electric:

“U.S. bank regulators should go to all the banks this afternoon and say, ‘You aren’t making loans, which is part of the definition of what it is to be a bank. If you aren’t acting like a bank by tomorrow we’ll take away your banking license and transfer your deposits to another bank that WILL make loans.’ Problem solved overnight.”

Sounds mighty feasible to me — if you could prevent them all saying “No” simultaneously.

John Evans

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Just a few weeks ago the world was wondering if we were about to be pitched into a deadly Black Hole created by CERN’s Large Hadron Collider in Europe.

Relax. The machine has broken down and will not be cranked up again until the spring.

Strange then that another Black Abyss stretches before us today in the shape of a virulent debt deflation of almost unimaginable ferocity.

Take these words by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in today’s UK Telegraph:

We face extreme danger. Unless there is immediate intervention on every front by all the major powers acting in concert, we risk a disintegration of global finance within days. Nobody will be spared, unless they own gold bars.

In case you think that smacks of hysteria, this is a man who has called this crisis correctly ever since the late summer of 2007. He adds:

“During the past week, we have tipped over the edge, into the middle of the abyss. Systemic collapse is in full train. … Central bankers still paralysed by a misplaced fear of inflation – whether in Europe, Britain, or the US – have become a public menace and should be held to severe account by our democracies. The imminent and massive danger is now self-feeding debt deflation.”

What this crisis shows is that world prosperity was built on a giant illusion: that there was real value in other people’s promises to pay at some future date, and that you could pass the parcel at a vast profit.

Time has run out and a bubble the size of an asteroid has landed and exploded in the centre of our civilization — the banking system.

The Sage of Omaha, Warren Buffett agrees, “In my adult lifetime, I don’t think I’ve ever seen people as fearful.”

Evans-Pritchard is lacerating about the EU and its Central Bank. It offered no “cover” to the Fed when Ben Bernanke slashed rates to 2 percent. The ECB simply raised its rate to 4.25 percent into a steep downturn, making oil inflation even worse.

As a last resort, it seems, the American authorities will use Bernanke’s famous printing press “to expand the menu of assets that it buys.” In the worst case, that could lead to a massive run on the dollar by foreign creditors and no end of misery for us all. But it may be necessary nonetheless.

At home, I have absolutely no confidence in the British government under Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling. They have been woefully slow to act, their policy to hide their heads under a pillow hoping it will all go away.

If Brown had even a small slice of a leader’s courage he would put together a massive package to recapitalize the British banking system; disown the “mark-to-market” accounting agreement, which forces banks into insolvency by estimating their assets on depressed valuations; take immediate control of interest rates by reducing them to 2 percent; begin to prepare for withdrawal from the useless European Union; and work closely with the Americans, who are, at the very least, fully aware of the immense dangers we face.

The Kraken is awake and bearing down on us fast. Over coming months and years we may wish that the Hadron Collider had swallowed us all up when it had the chance.

Update: The British Government has announced a variety of measures to recapitalize the banks and get the inter-bank lending markets working again. It amounts to a $900 billion bailout, eerily identical to the Paulson Plan for a country five times the size of Britain.

John Evans

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In the days of sail, when ships were built of wood and were vulnerable to hostile warships and pirates, each ship had many bulkheads to isolate parts of it that were hit.

In the later days of giant ocean liners made of iron, wealthy passengers demanded large ballrooms and restaurants so the bulkheads disappeared from the upper decks. One of the first of these new vessels was the Titanic. It hit an iceberg and the rest needs no retelling.

We’re having our own Titanic moment now in the world’s financial system, where the bulkheads that protected us have mostly been removed. In the 1930s, America had the Great Depression, but Britain was comparatively unscathed. In 2008 we share the pain.

As David Brooks puts it in the New York Times, “We’re living in an age when a vast excess of capital sloshes around the world fueling cycles of bubble and bust. When the capital floods into a sector or economy, it washes away sober business practices, and habits of discipline and self-denial. Then the money managers panic and it sloshes out, punishing the just and unjust alike.”

Francis Fukuyama points out that globalization masks the flaws in economic policy. “Foreigners seemed endlessly willing to hold U.S. dollars, allowing the U.S. Government to run deficits and enjoy high growth. That’s why early on Dick Cheney reportedly told President Bush that the lesson of the 1980s was that ‘deficits don’t matter’.”

Globalization is not new. The 250-year British Empire was a globalized trading system, depending on the might of the British Royal Navy — which had 50 percent of the world’s warships and most of its merchant fleet. It had the muscle and authority to protect its own national interests. That has been lost in modern times.

Transnational private-equity capital, almost all of it borrowed, has swept in and bought up most of our major corporations — on both sides of the Atlantic. These highly-leveraged buyouts seem benign in times of rampant expansion. However, it only takes a small twitch in the markets for the dust-thin financial structures to become sickly.

That also applies to banks that have followed suit and lent much more than their capital should allow. When the assets on their books are impossible to value because of the extent of toxic debt, the game is over.

The biggest question we will have to answer once the financial system has been stabilized, and the toxins isolated like nuclear waste, is: how much should we retract from globalization? In the age of the internet, is that even possible or desirable?

Even in regional terms, there’s no doubt that Britain’s membership of the European Union has degraded the country’s ability to be itself — a quality that has always paid off in the past.

On the other hand, staying out of the euro currency has shielded us from lower interest rates than we needed during the boom times. It also leaves us free to set optimum rates instead of relying on blunt fiscal instruments as the Irish, Spanish and Italians are having to do. This is one bulkhead that has more than proved its worth.

The EU’s decision to adopt the accounting standard of “fair value” or “mark to market” is having a devastating effect on our banks, whose diminishing capital is daily undervalued by the system, especially in hard times. The standard is as toxic as American mortgage securities.

While the U.S. is planning to ditch Basel 2, the EU’s directives will take years to repeal, and would need 27 countries to agree to it. Britain, should, as a matter of urgency scrap Brussels’s hold over our financial markets.

On some estimates, 84 percent of British laws are now made in Brussels. Most of them are counter-productive in a British context, obsessively bureaucratic, prescriptively inefficient and despised by the population. This heedlessly dispensed-with bulkhead is deeply desired and its absence bitterly resented. We should restore it as a matter of urgency.

I suspect that globalization has passed its peak. Without descending into full-blown protectionism, most nations will consider rebuilding some of the bulkheads that gave them their national characteristics, while minimizing restrictions on free trade. With tariffs low across much of the world, there is no need for global institutions to gum up the works with legalistic complexity.

Much of globalization is unnecessary and faddish, urged on us by old international Marxists and student Trotskyists like Gordon Brown and New Labour. They should be rejected.

America too should beware of whom it is electing to office in November.

It’s time to return to simplicity, fleetness of foot, and self-reliance. We would be much better nations if we did. And happier too.

John Evans

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Update: The U.S. House of Representatives has rejected the Treasury’s $700 billion rescue package. The Dow is down 770 points as I write.

Around a year ago Syntagma was among the first to use the word “Depression” in relation to the trajectory of Western economies.

Today, Monday 29 September, the word is on everyone’s lips.

Despite the rescue package now going through Congress, U.S. Treasury officials are in wild panic mode as truth finally dawns: there is nothing they can do to halt the steep declines in credit issuance that will deliver the most virulent bout of debt-deflation the world has known since the 1930s’ Great Depression.

We are hearing that officials close to Henry Paulson are privately painting a much bleaker picture of the fragility of the global economy than that of President Bush last week.

A Republican is quoted as saying that the message from government officials is that “the economy is dropping into the john. We could see falls of 3,000 or 4,000 points on the Dow. That could happen in just a couple of days.

“What’s being put around behind the scenes is that we’re looking at 1930s stuff. We’re looking at catastrophe, huge, amazing catastrophe. Everybody is extraordinarily scared. It’s going to be really, really nasty.”

A spokesman for BNP Paribas said, “Money markets are imploding. If no action is taken very soon, there is a significant risk that the global economy will collapse.”

But what action can be taken now? Imagine a palatial building across many acres eaten through by hordes of termites. Builders rush in to replace a pillar or two hoping to stabilize the structure. But architects shake their heads knowing that nothing can save the rotten edifice from collapse.

The U.S. Federal Reserve fears an “adverse feedback loop” with terrifying consequences. The “liquidation” of failed banks policy that led to the Great Depression is alive and well and raising its head in the Republican party. That may give them a short-term bounce among very angry voters, but the result could be catastrophic.

John McCain, who seemed to be coasting to victory just a few weeks ago appears to be undermined by his own side. His chances of the White House get slimmer by the day.

Central banks in Britain and Europe are maintaining their high-interest rate policy, despite the need to loosen up credit. Libor — the rate at which banks lend to each other — rose again this morning, regardless of the $700 billion U.S. package. They need to cut and cut again despite their genteel anxiety over “moral hazard”.

We are witnessing a slow-motion shipwreck, caused partly by panic, by different officials working to rigid, uncoordinated targets, and by the lack of anyone competent enough to take overall charge and impose a coherent escape route on the entire system.

The politicians have imploded, the bankers have failed, and the markets are reflecting that turmoil in the only way they know how.

How very fragile are the pillars of our civilization.

John Evans

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