Syntagma Digital
Editor, John Evans

Google forces online consolidation

You know you’ve made it when the competition walks in terror of your objectives.

Attila the Hun
Attila the Hun as depicted by the BBC

If you generate real fear in your space, you’ve achieved the status of Attila the Hun, who terrorized the Roman Empire 2000 years ago.

Who is the 21st century’s online version of the bloodthirsty Hun? Google, of course : the “Do no evil” search giant which can be surprisingly heavy-handed in defence of its own interests.

Microsoft has clearly given up on its solitary attempts to challenge the unchallengable, and has been seeking to swallow other stragglers to redress the position.

It should heed the old warning, though : “You are what you eat”.

Yahoo is refusing the toothsome embrace of the software king and is now in talks with Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp.

Now correct me if I’m wrong, but escaping the clutches of one Great White Shark only to fall longingly into the jaws of another, doesn’t seem like a very good strategy to me. But what do I know?

The two sides are apparently in discussions about merging MySpace and News Corporation’s other online properties with Yahoo. News Corp would get a stake of more than 20pc in the internet company.

The deal would help the Murdoch corporation fight back against the growing dominance of Google’s internet search business. There’s that name again.

Last year, Rupert Murdoch said: “We’ve got to find new ways and new business models to get revenues. Or else the world is going to be owned by Google.”

He has made no secret of the fact that he views attacking Google’s dominance as the key to internet progress for his businesses.

The deal would also leave Microsoft without a growth strategy. The Redmond softies have been desperately trying to make their mark in the online world after seeing their software and operating systems business deliver little value to shareholders in recent years.

A News Corp-owned Yahoo would give Murdoch an established news platform online and, under the terms being discussed, would leave Yahoo essentially independent to take the fight to both Google and Microsoft.

Somehow, I see Google surviving that, but Microsoft may have nowhere to hide — online at least.

The Wall Street Journal — now Murdoch owned — is calling the value of MySpace at between $6bn and $10bn. A spokeswoman for Yahoo said last night, “Our board is continuing to carefully and thoroughly evaluate its strategic options and is committed to pursuing initiatives that maximize value for all stockholders.”

One can’t help thinking that somewhere in the background, watching like a hawk, is the wily Attila. This time though he’s running out of options. Anti-Trust laws are likely to limit Google’s room for manoeuvre.

Attila was finally caught up with and defeated by a superior Roman General leading a coalition of tribes pushed aside by the Hun. They included Saxons, Franks and Celts.

Are sufficient forces now gathering that will see off the internet’s own version of Attila?

Maybe not this time. But fall he will. History is implacable on that.

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Self-indulgence is blogging heaven

Vikings This morning I received a couple of comments on two old posts dating back to October 2005 and July 2006. Both posts have been popular for comments and email conversations. Neither is on topic — which are, Tech, Media, Publishing — and would fall into the very ample category of self-indulgence.

The first is, Hey, I’m a Viking, which tells how I discovered that I’m … erm … a Viking. It seems I have the genetic configuration called Baron Dupuytren’s disease, or Viking Finger. Here’s a snippet :

“This weekend I discovered I’m a Viking. … Yes, I’m one of those horn-headed, axe-wielding types who terrorized Europe for centuries. Before you run for cover, I’m not about to go on a spreadeagling spree or demand you pay me Danegeld — although that might not be a bad idea.

“I realized I’ve got Viking blood — as many in the British Isles have — because of a minor medical condition which affects the small finger tendon in the palm of a hand. This progressive condition pulls the small finger gradually across the palm, giving a rather gnarled, even romantic, impression to the onlooker. The figure of Captain Hook springs to mind. ”

Sharks The second, is about an obscure Cornish author called Crosbie Garstin, now utterly forgotten, even in Cornwall. Yet, he wrote a major Hollywood film, China Seas (1935), which starred Clark Gable, plus a memorable trilogy about the Penhales family. Here’s a taster :

“Crosbie Garstin is best known for his trilogy of novels about the Penhales family, published before the last war by Heinemann. The Owls’ House, High Noon and The West Wind are all cracking adventures set in Cornwall and on the high seas in the days of sail. China Seas, his last book, continued the genre, and was made into a Hollywood film starring Clark Gable. Garstin was an interesting character, a true adventurer and traveller. He served during the first world war in King Edward’s Horse and was commissioned on the battlefield in 1915.”

It always intrigues me why some posts attract comments long after they were published. Clearly, these two contain specific keywords that are regularly searched for on Google and other engines. Syntagma is number 1 on Google for both “crosbie garstin” and “viking finger”.

So doctors searching for medical information on Baron Dupuytren’s disease will land on our silly post. Let’s hope they don’t kill anyone with an axe.

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Good new year news at last

Good news

UK High Street giant Marks and Spencer has just dropped the price of men’s underwear by more than 40 percent to 60p ($1.18) a pair.

Some might call that “pants”, but I think it’s jolly good news — I need to replenish my under-wardrobe. Don’t say we don’t bring good tidings here at Syntagma.

To tell you the truth, I’ve been scouring the columns and bulletins for weeks for just a glimmer of brash, hopeful news for the new year, but that’s the best I can find. I’m having to fall back on small domestic matters.

Today I’m going to tell you about my new desk diary. I do enjoy opening a fresh, pristine volume for the first time in the new year. Such possibilities. A whole year spread out before us like a blank canvas. And a Year Planner we can write in anything we wish.

I usually buy my diaries on January 5 — the ones I use run out on January 6. In the retail trade, this is called Just-in-Time purchasing. It’s why when you want to buy a large item you’re told there’s a six-week delivery period.

My brand of diary comes in two colours, silver and black. I buy them alternately each year. 2008 is a black year. Naturally, 2007 was silver. Does that affect the quality of the year? You would be surprised.

Extensive in-house research indicates that it does, but with a qualification. Take last year. The first six months were a breeze; couldn’t put a foot wrong. However, from midsummer it all went awry. Various factors, including Google’s hamfisted twiddling with its PageRank algorithm, knocked the stuffing out of the market.

This year, we start on a low baritone note. Merrill Lynch believes the U.S. is already in recession, and the British Government is preparing to nationalize failed bank, Northern Rock — a little late in the day — in a desperate effort to save the vast billions of taxpayers’ money they’ve sunk into the rescue plan.

However, the good news is that an acquaintance of mine, who happens to be a professional astrologer (I know, I know!), says that 2008 is going to be brilliant, with upturns everywhere by June. Eerily, many economists are saying the same thing. Now we know where they get their inspiration from.

So it’s a game of two halves. The diary colour only predicts the first six months. If we can survive till summer we’re in clover — so to speak.

Anyone for hibernation.

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Is another dotcom crash underway?

Continuing the uncharacteristically gloomy series of posts in Syntagma over recent days, I’m impelled to mention Greg Linden’s plausible post on the “coming 2008 dotcom crash”.

He writes : “The crash will be driven by a recession and prolonged slow growth in the US. Global investment capital will flee to quality, ending the speculative dumping of cash on Web 2.0 startups.”

The VC’s will go into damage limitation mode : “Venture capital firms will seek to limit their losses by forcing many of their portfolio companies to liquidate or seek a buyout. … Startups that managed to get cash before the bubble collapses will have a cash horde [sic], but will find little opportunity to rest on it. Most startups will find their revenue models were unrealistic and will rapidly have to seek change.”

A contrarian view was taken by Irwin Stelzer on last night’s BBC Newsnight. He felt the Sovereign Wealth Funds (see this post) would ride in to the rescue like the US Cavalry — as they have done so far. His tone was a shade too optimistic for my taste, much as I admire his opinions. The image of King Canute rose unbidden to the mind’s eye.

Back to Linden, who compares the current situation with the 2000 dotcom crash : “[It] was a much smaller crash without the fuel from broader problems in the US economy, but we still had investment capital shut off for a few years, most startups shut down, and the remaining startups shift business models.”

I believe the crash is already underway. I’m sensing a number of ad networks reassessing their operations and even closing down some programs. We can’t be immune from the wider economy.

Businesses that can live on short rations may ride this out through belt-tightening measures. Anyone with debt that needs to be renewed periodically will find their position precarious.

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