Syntagma never says “I told you so”. It’s an irritating phrase that adds nothing to a debate. It’s also a pyrrhic victory when the bad times roll.

We’re talking about the American economy, of course — now in recession, as we’ve been predicting for months — and the British and European financial positions, which are trailing some way behind the U.S., but about to implode too.

We’ve been on the case since last June when the ominous tag “credit crunch” started to be bandied about in response to falling American house prices.

As online publishers we are partially protected from the ravages faced by bricks and mortar operations. Even so, Google responded to the same data last year by dumping lots of small publishers using its AdWords/AdSense programs and its range of offshoot partnerships.

ZDNet Editor in Chief Larry Dignan believes that “the dip in Google’s paid clicks was intentional, part of a strategic plan designed to deliver better, more-precisely targeted ads” and tends “to reflect macroeconomic conditions” — an acknowledgment that suggests Google isn’t recession-proof.

The knock-on effects lowered the earning power of a whole raft of mid-sized publishers who operate below the glass ceiling of scalability needed to challenge the giant press barons of the print media.

Given the power of this pincer movement, how should internet marketers and publishers ride out the troubles ahead, which may even include another dotcom crash?

Here at Syntagma we are developing two new business models which don’t depend exclusively on Google rankings and big investment in assets. We have also moved to conserve cash, now the most sought after commodity in global financial markets. Forget equities, bonds and angel lending. Asset-backing is truly out of fashion. Only cash and gold will do during the next two to five years, or maybe even longer than that. Japan took more than a decade to haul itself out of its banking crisis and the profound deflation of the 1990s.

I really don’t see how mid-sized businesses, with heavy debt, and/or lots of equity in the hands of VCs, can get through this otherwise.

The Fed’s dramatic easing of monetary policy, which still has some way to go, is barely making an impact, although the usual lags apply. In the 1990s, Japan found that zero, even negative, interest rates could not persuade its reluctant public to splash out in the shops. Longer term rates in the U.S. are already close to zero.

Ben Bernanke is apparently studying the Japanese experience of zero rates right now. Surely a sign of what’s to come.

The game now appears to be out of the hands of the authorities whatever they decide to do. Bernanke deserves credit for at least trying. His next move will surely be to throw the kitchen sink at the problem and let the Devil take the hindmost. This is no time for musings on “moral hazard”, the hazard is not inflation but deflation and slump. Massive U.S. Government loans to individual defaulters can’t be ruled out and may be just around the corner.

Compare that to the lethargic approach of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. Still holding rates at 5.25 percent and 4 percent respectively, although the BoE has little room to manoeuvre thanks to Gordon Brown’s obsession with public-sector spending.

The first casualties could be some major institutions in America and monetary union in Europe, where the euro currency is looking very vulnerable. At least Brown got that right.

Syntagma predicts we are going to be amazed by developments in the not too distant future. The world may look a very different place when we come out of this, and it won’t necessarily be all bad news. Bubbles have to burst. Nature demands it. And the end of the eurozone would be a big plus for European freedom.

Nearly a year ago I wrote a post called These are the good times. They were and still are, uncomfortable though the ride may be.

Banks are pulling back from the industrial securitization of risk that has blown up so spectacularly in their faces.

So called collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are the supermarket sausages of the financial system — nobody knows what’s in them, and most prefer not to.

In the old days, banks took the risk of lending money on themselves and ensured that borrowers would be able to pay it back over time. Securitization means that they can lend to any Tom, Dick or Harriet, package up the debts into large parcels of small slices from many borrowers, and sell them onto other banks and finance houses.

When house prices are rising fast, and rates are low (thanks to the Iraq war — see yesterday’s post), there will be no problem. How quickly the weather can change.

Now there’s a rush back to caution and traditional virtues — and not before time.

The Private Equity industry is currently holding its global jamboree in Germany. What a difference a year makes. Just months ago (pre-August 9, to be precise) the Private Equity barons were borrowing billions to take over all manner of companies, many blue-chip, and some national strategic giants. Now the sources of funds are drying up and the world has become a much more anxious place.

Not so long ago, securitization of talent was the goal for what HG Wells called “originative intellectual workers” — the kind of people who work from a laptop and a cell phone, hot-desking from place to place. They were advised to raise money on future earnings by selling shares in themselves. Specialized markets were to spring up, something like the London Stock Exchange’s AIM market, to flog these things to admirers with more money than sense.

I suppose if you turned into a Bill Gates or the Google guys your investors would be happy — but how many of us do?

The whole notion of securitization is targeted on bypassing the present reality in favour of an unknown future, using other people’s money — often their pension funds or insurance pots. In essence it’s no different from betting on racehorses.

Now the bubble has burst and cold realism has dawned, even for the godlings of private equity and their blood brothers, venture capitalists.

The beneficiaries will be China, and the sovereign wealth funds of Asia, including the Middle East. Western financial centres have permitted power to pass from settled democracies under the rule of law, to the potentates of totalitarian regimes whose oil deposits or cheap, exploited labour will soon allow to rule over us in many covert ways yet to be revealed.

And why? The abandonment of risk management in the cause of easy pickings.

Who will hold the banks to account?

Nobody — it’s too risky.

You know you’ve made it when the competition walks in terror of your objectives.

Attila the Hun as depicted by the BBC

If you generate real fear in your space, you’ve achieved the status of Attila the Hun, who terrorized the Roman Empire 2000 years ago.

Who is the 21st century’s online version of the bloodthirsty Hun? Google, of course : the “Do no evil” search giant which can be surprisingly heavy-handed in defence of its own interests.

Microsoft has clearly given up on its solitary attempts to challenge the unchallengable, and has been seeking to swallow other stragglers to redress the position.

It should heed the old warning, though : “You are what you eat”.

Yahoo is refusing the toothsome embrace of the software king and is now in talks with Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp.

Now correct me if I’m wrong, but escaping the clutches of one Great White Shark only to fall longingly into the jaws of another, doesn’t seem like a very good strategy to me. But what do I know?

The two sides are apparently in discussions about merging MySpace and News Corporation’s other online properties with Yahoo. News Corp would get a stake of more than 20pc in the internet company.

The deal would help the Murdoch corporation fight back against the growing dominance of Google’s internet search business. There’s that name again.

Last year, Rupert Murdoch said: “We’ve got to find new ways and new business models to get revenues. Or else the world is going to be owned by Google.”

He has made no secret of the fact that he views attacking Google’s dominance as the key to internet progress for his businesses.

The deal would also leave Microsoft without a growth strategy. The Redmond softies have been desperately trying to make their mark in the online world after seeing their software and operating systems business deliver little value to shareholders in recent years.

A News Corp-owned Yahoo would give Murdoch an established news platform online and, under the terms being discussed, would leave Yahoo essentially independent to take the fight to both Google and Microsoft.

Somehow, I see Google surviving that, but Microsoft may have nowhere to hide — online at least.

The Wall Street Journal — now Murdoch owned — is calling the value of MySpace at between $6bn and $10bn. A spokeswoman for Yahoo said last night, “Our board is continuing to carefully and thoroughly evaluate its strategic options and is committed to pursuing initiatives that maximize value for all stockholders.”

One can’t help thinking that somewhere in the background, watching like a hawk, is the wily Attila. This time though he’s running out of options. Anti-Trust laws are likely to limit Google’s room for manoeuvre.

Attila was finally caught up with and defeated by a superior Roman General leading a coalition of tribes pushed aside by the Hun. They included Saxons, Franks and Celts.

Are sufficient forces now gathering that will see off the internet’s own version of Attila?

Maybe not this time. But fall he will. History is implacable on that.

This morning I received a couple of comments on two old posts dating back to October 2005 and July 2006. Both posts have been popular for comments and email conversations. Neither is on topic — which are, Tech, Media, Publishing — and would fall into the very ample category of self-indulgence.

The first is, Hey, I’m a Viking, which tells how I discovered that I’m … erm … a Viking. It seems I have the genetic configuration called Baron Dupuytren’s disease, or Viking Finger. Here’s a snippet :

“This weekend I discovered I’m a Viking. … Yes, I’m one of those horn-headed, axe-wielding types who terrorized Europe for centuries. Before you run for cover, I’m not about to go on a spreadeagling spree or demand you pay me Danegeld — although that might not be a bad idea.

“I realized I’ve got Viking blood — as many in the British Isles have — because of a minor medical condition which affects the small finger tendon in the palm of a hand. This progressive condition pulls the small finger gradually across the palm, giving a rather gnarled, even romantic, impression to the onlooker. The figure of Captain Hook springs to mind. ”

The second, is about an obscure Cornish author called Crosbie Garstin, now utterly forgotten, even in Cornwall. Yet, he wrote a major Hollywood film, China Seas (1935), which starred Clark Gable, plus a memorable trilogy about the Penhales family. Here’s a taster :

“Crosbie Garstin is best known for his trilogy of novels about the Penhales family, published before the last war by Heinemann. The Owls’ House, High Noon and The West Wind are all cracking adventures set in Cornwall and on the high seas in the days of sail. China Seas, his last book, continued the genre, and was made into a Hollywood film starring Clark Gable. Garstin was an interesting character, a true adventurer and traveller. He served during the first world war in King Edward’s Horse and was commissioned on the battlefield in 1915.”

It always intrigues me why some posts attract comments long after they were published. Clearly, these two contain specific keywords that are regularly searched for on Google and other engines. Syntagma is number 1 on Google for both “crosbie garstin” and “viking finger”.

So doctors searching for medical information on Baron Dupuytren’s disease will land on our silly post. Let’s hope they don’t kill anyone with an axe.