Syntagma Digital
Editor, John Evans

New shape for Syntagma

Syntagma Our end of year review+fix of the Syntgama network is now almost complete.

We’ve stabilized to 27 active sites, down from 55 at peak, with 9 archived. That includes three new sites : Sideways Health (now purring along quite healthily), a new role for Moneyizor, involving the topic of the moment : macroeconomics (should be relaunching very soon), and the first site of a local West Country of England sub-network, Devon and Cornwall (coming in a week or so).

Underneath all this runs our Specialist Information Online strand, which is not public but deals directly with corporate clients.

Economic conditions are, as the saying goes, falling off a cliff now. When the money men start fleeing their markets you know there’s a war on. And boy have we got a war!

Syntagma’s notorious prudence over money matters is paying off now with cash reserves to see us through the crunchy times ahead and zero borrowings or obligations of any sort.

Marshall Sponder, our man in NYC, has been writing about all the businesses shutting up shop in New York over at Art NYC. It’s quite a bloodbath by the sound of it.

Here in the UK the blows are only just beginning to land, but they’re coming thick and fast now. People with fixed-term mortgages are trapped like rats in a sack. Nowhere to go. Three million families are already moving into negative equity. Dangerous times.

Still, the show must go on, and Syntagma’s sails are furled ready for the perfect storm. (Note to self : I must stop mixing these metaphors!).

There’s always a silver lining, though. When asset prices fall some great business opportunities arise for those with the cash to buy them. No wonder economics is called the dismal science.

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Smart not draconian bank regulation now

Pendulum That old pendulum is swinging again and at a speed that threatens disaster for banks and economies alike.

During the Thatcher decade (1980s) the politburo socialism of the 1970s was jettisoned all over the world — apart from in isolated outposts like Castro’s Cuba. Both the Berlin Wall and the Soviet Union crashed to oblivion, and Mao’s China turned to its own version of capitalism.

That long swing to market dominance over centralized control has continued for nearly 30 years. Until now.

It’s about to go into reverse because of the vast mountains of debt built up in the system — an indebtedness that threatens to bring down the whole financial setup, investment and retail banks, and the “real economy” too.

Bank regulators are even now sharpening their swords ready to cut into the once-impenetrable jungle of bonus-led speculation and rampant hedonism that defines the financial markets, once the Rolls Royces of any respectable country.

Should we allow the pendulum — which more and more resembles the scythe of the Grim Reaper — to retrace its path back to the 1970s? Have we learned nothing?

Let’s just glance at the current situation in the markets. A spokeman for French bank Société Générale, itself a victim of the speculation culture, is deeply pessimistic, “We expect global equity prices to fall by up to 75pc from their peaks as a deep global economic downturn unfolds over the next few years.” A 50pc collapse in earnings is on the cards, made worse by an “Ice Age derating of equities”.

A 75pc fall in stocks matches Japan’s Lost Decade in the 1990s when they fell around 80pc.

The danger is that ultra-low rates will fuel another credit bubble which will put the real problem — huge debt levels — off for another turn of the screw, when it will surely be even worse.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the UK’s Telegraph believes, “The capitalist system is now so deformed by debt that it requires ever lower interest rates to keep going. It survives on perma-bubbles. Monetary rigour at this late stage would endanger democracy. How did we ever let matters reach this pass?”

The UK regulator — the Financial Services Agency (FSA), which failed dismally with Northern Rock, has just published a report on the affair which highlights the problems regulators have. The FSA simply lacked the up-to-the-minute expertise on the newest financial instruments of the people it was regulating. To make matters worse, it was grossly understaffed for the job it was asked to do by government.

Rather than going back to the Dark Ages of government control and draconian restrictions, it would be better to do a deal with the banking system to co-opt top bankers for a year to the regulators. They could be paid identical salaries and averaged bonus equivalents as the banks pay out. They would then return to their institutions to keep up with new developments.

This would be expensive and would probably cause outrage in the public sector, but it would be far cheaper and less demoralizing than turning the clock back to the bad old days of politburo socialism.

The depredations of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act in America, following the Enron collapse, is a measure of how to overdo regulation. Let’s learn from the past in order to safeguard the future.

In the meantime the vast columns of red ink splashing across the economies of the world will unwind fitfully and very painfully for years. There is no alternative.

We need to hold our nerve and steady the pendulum.

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American economy teeters on brink

The rest of the world may not know who, or what, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are, but Americans do. They are the financial institutions that guarantee 60 percent of the U.S. home loan market. Both are on the edge of meltdown.

The Fed
The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank

They are also the leading players in a top-tier of lenders that control $11 trillion of mortgage lending. A collapse would trigger a catastrophe of unprecedented proportions across the world’s largest economy with swift knock-on effects around the globe.

What is emerging now is the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s. If America’s huge mortage banks are no longer rock solid, nothing is safe anymore.

The Fed is pulling every string available to it to neutralize the toxic effects of the subprime disaster. It’s predicted to lower rates by another 75 basis points within days, and is now offering Treasury bonds in exchange for mortgage debt. By soaking up some of the poison, the central bank is temporarily providing a shoulder to lean on for jumpy bankers whose world is disintegrating around them.

Like the British mortgage bank, Northern Rock, Freddie and Fannie may have to be nationalized — or their dubious collateral underwritten by government agencies — to shore up the economy against plunging over the edge. And Bear Stearns is in serious trouble too.

All this makes the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer’s budget today rather small beer. And that’s just what we expect — taxes on beer and faux “green” measures to raise a little cash here and there.

The real action is in Washingtom, where the Fed is leading the charge against a U.S.-generated global meltdown of potentially epic proportions.

Bernard Connolly, Global Strategist at Banque AIG, believes Fed action won’t solve the problem of eroded of bank capital. “There is the risk of a very damaging credit contraction. We face the most serious global crisis since the Great Depression. But this time at least the North American central banks are doing their best to stop it spreading to the real economy. We should be thankful that we have people in charge who appreciate the gravity of the situation.”

True enough, but the “perfect storm” is gathering perfection by the hour.

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Syntagma Briefing March 3 2008

Spring After our specialist retail information site (corporate subscriptions only) gets underway soon, we will start to set up a similar project in the real estate sector — first in Britain, then the U.S.

We are looking for genuine expert analysts in this sphere to participate in producing top-of-the-range information reports for the site. Get in touch if you have the necessary experience and expertise.

Our Sideways Health site for the Syntagma network should get underway next week.

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