In last week’s Saturday Ramble I castigated the so-called scientific community for spewing out baseless information across the board, especially in the area of supposed man-made global warming.

Today, I draw your attention to a fascinating post in Telegraph blogs by James Delingpole. His suggestions of blatant fraud at the Met Office’s weather lab are naturally hedged about by disclaimers, but worth reading in detail. No doubt we’ll be hearing more about this as days pass.

To add to that, this is what I wrote here on November 1, 2005:

It’s November the 1st, All Saints Day.

As I look out of my window here in southern England I can see girls going to work and college in T-shirts. Nobody’s wearing winter or, for that matter, autumn clothing. The temperature here is an almost balmy 67F (19C). So Global Warming is upon us.

Hah! All is never what it seems in this life. Summer has been particularly warm, though never hot. And it’s certainly nipped a whole month off winter … so far.

But, the long-range weather forecast predicts the bitterest winter since 1962/63 when the UK froze under 20ft snow drifts for three months from Christmas Day till March.

The word “predict” is relevant here. How different is this forecast from the Star Sign predictions in the tabloid newspapers? Well, it’s based on readings from scores of special submarine buoys out in the north Atlantic. Computer models show that the peculiar nature of this year’s data is only matched by those of 1962.

Except, the forecasters didn’t have the remarkable submarine buoys back then. So do the figures match as well as the meteorologists suppose? And, what if there are other factors not being looked at, and missed 40 years ago?

Humans make huge judgements based on narrow data and scattergun information. The wonderful intrusion of paradox is never taken into account by our boffins. Bless their cotton socks, but Syntagma predicts a remarkably warm and balmy winter here in northern Europe, and especially in southern England, where the girls will continue for some time to go to work and college in T-shirts. And an early spring will take us all by surprise. You heard it here first.

Was I right? Here’s the verdict from netweather.tv:

“This winter was widely close to average snow-wise … Not much snow to speak of during January and February (the late February ’06 easterly was even less potent than the Feb ’05 one) … A northerly airstream during first week March brought snow showers for many …”

In other words, a fairly typical British winter, with snowfall lasting only a day or two and with a late flurry in March. My early spring, though, was out by a week or two, but then I’m not paid out of the public purse to forecast the weather.

How long can we go on listening to authorities who seem always to get it wrong?

John Evans

Recent Related Commentary
Saturday Ramble: Poor information is destroying the quality of our lives
Saturday Ramble: 1759 and all that + 250
Saturday Ramble: Established freedoms equate with good governance
Saturday Ramble: What if there had been referenda on the early EU treaties?