An occasional look at the Conservatives preparedness for Government

The out-going leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party (Ukip), Nigel Farage, is claiming that the party will have candidates in almost every constituency at the next General Election — due in March or May.

With the consistent Conservative lead over Labour in the polls varying between 10 and 17 percent, Ukip could pose a real threat to the Tories if they can capture a big chunk of the disaffected Eurosceptic vote, which is still nursing a grievance over being deprived of a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. David Cameron’s apparent retreat on the issue puts him in the same league as Gordon Brown, as many see it, although the circumstances were very different.

As one of those disaffected voters, I can put myself in the shoes of someone thinking “A plague on all your houses — at least Ukip is consistent”. That would just be pique and a wasted vote though. Toys and prams.

We desperately need a grown-up electorate at this time to draw the long-term lessons of yet another Labour catastrophe and to give the Conservatives an extensive run in Government.

And yet, what could be more important than a country’s self-determination and its sovereignty? It just happens to be part of the soul of Toryism down the ages. I doubt it will fade away.

My own view is that Britain’s total withdrawal from the EU is inevitable, as the Eurocrats flex their bratwurst-fed muscles to show us who’s boss. This is likely to reach a crescendo in the run-up to the general election after next.

In other words, David Cameron and William Hague are going to have to confront this issue sooner or later. It would help if the economy was back in growth mode at the time, and that the Government was high in the opinion polls.

Here’s a suggestion for the Tories: in the upcoming manifesto, promise an in-out referendum — there’s no point in anything else — during the second half of the next Parliament.

That would nullify much of Ukip’s threat in 2010, satisfy the Eurosceptics and the Tory Right, and provide the radical edge that’s missing from Conservative policy, without threatening the broad sweep of centrist measures. Of course, any “irrron-clad guarantee” would have to be delivered.

It would also add a sense of justice being done, and seen to be done, over the most contentious issue in British politics.

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