In the end it played the fool with us all, and didn’t frighten the horses. That is all that can be said of Alistair Darling’s second and, let us pray, final Budget.

If the horses remain calm, we should not. Yesterday’s exercise was designed to do one thing: to conceal a massive timebomb set to detonate when the Tories have been in power for a year or two.

In a way it was a game two halves. The first was Prime Minister’s Questions in which Gordon Brown asserted again that the ongoing slump is not a conventional one, preceded by inflation, but a much more serious occurrence caused by a catastrophic drop in financial blood pressure.

However, Alistair Darling’s Budget calculations premised a normal recession in which the economy powers back to higher than trend growth within a year or two as companies rebuild their inventories and buy new machine tools. GDP will, the Chancellor asserted, grow by a sprightly 3.5pc in 2011 before gently easing back to trend. Cue gasps and catcalls from many MPs.

Slumps caused by financial collapse always take much longer to throw off, as did the Great Depression of the 1930s. This one will have a similar trajectory.

The faultline demonstrated here is not built on human error, but on Brownian calculation of advantage. Brown should have bitten his tongue at PMQs and the disparity of logic would not have been so glaringly obvious. His vanity got the better of him.

The IMF were quick to rubbish the Budget predictions of growth. Evan Davis on this morning’s Today programme practically accused the Chancellor of using a false growth figure to conceal a massive fiscal tightening from 2011 onwards. By then, the Conservatives will be in power and Labour will be screaming “Tory cuts!” from the Opposition benches.

There’s not much love lost in politics, but some personnel would be jailed for that under less liberal regimes. One incident caught my eye. As Darling read out the numbers for public borrowing for this year and next, £175 billion, and £173bn — the highest in history and more than all years added together since 1694 — Gordon Brown was laughing.

Was it because he had made history at last? Or maybe because he believes he has scuppered the next Conservative period in office, setting depth charges to explode year after year.

Whatever the reason, it revealed Mr Hyde in full swing and convinces many of us that Dr Jekyll was a figment of our imagination.

As if aware of the skullduggery that had just been played out, David Cameron put up a spirited and angry response to the Budget speech. It was the performance of the day and contrasted markedly with Darling’s leaden oratory — if it can be called that.

Many of us waited for the scorn to be poured all over the new 50p tax rate for high-end earners, the very people who create our wealth and divert their surplus funds into investments. It didn’t come.

One can imagine the delight of low-tax regimes (so-called havens) at the lip-smacking prospect of all those City types heading their way after this Budget-for-Bennites.

This was another Brownian trap for the Tories. How he must be chortling with glee, like Billy Bunter on receipt of his long-awaited postal order and the prospect of a big bag of cream buns.

Thankfully, David Cameron and George Osborne live in the real world.

John Evans
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