Update: The U.S. House of Representatives has rejected the Treasury’s $700 billion rescue package. The Dow is down 770 points as I write.

Around a year ago Syntagma was among the first to use the word “Depression” in relation to the trajectory of Western economies.

Today, Monday 29 September, the word is on everyone’s lips.

Despite the rescue package now going through Congress, U.S. Treasury officials are in wild panic mode as truth finally dawns: there is nothing they can do to halt the steep declines in credit issuance that will deliver the most virulent bout of debt-deflation the world has known since the 1930s’ Great Depression.

We are hearing that officials close to Henry Paulson are privately painting a much bleaker picture of the fragility of the global economy than that of President Bush last week.

A Republican is quoted as saying that the message from government officials is that “the economy is dropping into the john. We could see falls of 3,000 or 4,000 points on the Dow. That could happen in just a couple of days.

“What’s being put around behind the scenes is that we’re looking at 1930s stuff. We’re looking at catastrophe, huge, amazing catastrophe. Everybody is extraordinarily scared. It’s going to be really, really nasty.”

A spokesman for BNP Paribas said, “Money markets are imploding. If no action is taken very soon, there is a significant risk that the global economy will collapse.”

But what action can be taken now? Imagine a palatial building across many acres eaten through by hordes of termites. Builders rush in to replace a pillar or two hoping to stabilize the structure. But architects shake their heads knowing that nothing can save the rotten edifice from collapse.

The U.S. Federal Reserve fears an “adverse feedback loop” with terrifying consequences. The “liquidation” of failed banks policy that led to the Great Depression is alive and well and raising its head in the Republican party. That may give them a short-term bounce among very angry voters, but the result could be catastrophic.

John McCain, who seemed to be coasting to victory just a few weeks ago appears to be undermined by his own side. His chances of the White House get slimmer by the day.

Central banks in Britain and Europe are maintaining their high-interest rate policy, despite the need to loosen up credit. Libor — the rate at which banks lend to each other — rose again this morning, regardless of the $700 billion U.S. package. They need to cut and cut again despite their genteel anxiety over “moral hazard”.

We are witnessing a slow-motion shipwreck, caused partly by panic, by different officials working to rigid, uncoordinated targets, and by the lack of anyone competent enough to take overall charge and impose a coherent escape route on the entire system.

The politicians have imploded, the bankers have failed, and the markets are reflecting that turmoil in the only way they know how.

How very fragile are the pillars of our civilization.

John Evans

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