Continuing the uncharacteristically gloomy series of posts in Syntagma over recent days, I’m impelled to mention Greg Linden’s plausible post on the “coming 2008 dotcom crash”.

He writes : “The crash will be driven by a recession and prolonged slow growth in the US. Global investment capital will flee to quality, ending the speculative dumping of cash on Web 2.0 startups.”

The VC’s will go into damage limitation mode : “Venture capital firms will seek to limit their losses by forcing many of their portfolio companies to liquidate or seek a buyout. … Startups that managed to get cash before the bubble collapses will have a cash horde [sic], but will find little opportunity to rest on it. Most startups will find their revenue models were unrealistic and will rapidly have to seek change.”

A contrarian view was taken by Irwin Stelzer on last night’s BBC Newsnight. He felt the Sovereign Wealth Funds (see this post) would ride in to the rescue like the US Cavalry — as they have done so far. His tone was a shade too optimistic for my taste, much as I admire his opinions. The image of King Canute rose unbidden to the mind’s eye.

Back to Linden, who compares the current situation with the 2000 dotcom crash : “[It] was a much smaller crash without the fuel from broader problems in the US economy, but we still had investment capital shut off for a few years, most startups shut down, and the remaining startups shift business models.”

I believe the crash is already underway. I’m sensing a number of ad networks reassessing their operations and even closing down some programs. We can’t be immune from the wider economy.

Businesses that can live on short rations may ride this out through belt-tightening measures. Anyone with debt that needs to be renewed periodically will find their position precarious.