It’s November the 1st, All Saints Day.

As I look out of my window here in southern England I can see girls going to work and college in T-shirts. Nobody’s wearing winter or, for that matter, autumn clothing. The temperature here is an almost balmy 67F (19C). So Global Warming is upon us.

Hah! All is never what it seems in this life. Summer has been particularly warm, though never hot. And it’s certainly nipped a whole month off winter … so far.

But, the long-range weather forecast predicts the bitterest winter since 1962/63 when the UK froze under 20ft snow drifts for three months from Christmas Day till March.

The word “predict” is relevant here. How different is this forecast from the Star Sign predictions in the tabloid newspapers? Well, it’s based on readings from scores of special submarine buoys out in the north Atlantic. Computer models show that the peculiar nature of this year’s data is only matched by those of 1962.

Except, the forecasters didn’t have the remarkable submarine buoys back then. So do the figures match as well as the meteorologists suppose? And, what if there are other factors not being looked at, and missed 40 years ago?

Humans make huge judgements based on narrow data and scattergun information. The wonderful intrusion of paradox is never taken into account by our boffins. Bless their cotton socks, but Syntagma predicts a remarkably warm and balmy winter here in northern Europe, and especially in southern England, where the girls will continue for some time to go to work and college in T-shirts. And an early spring will take us all by surprise. You heard it here first